Vision of EU's 'soft power'
Monday, March 3, 2008

The powder keg of Western Balkans can only see peace with the expansion of the EU into the region, experts believe.

Balkan states have a mixed demographic composition of various ethnic groups and the EU may be the driving force for unity among those groups and enable them to look up at the same sky

FULYA ÖZERKAN
ANKARA - Turkish Daily News

 An enlarged European Union can become a supranational model for the multi-ethnic Western Balkans, injecting powerful impetus for a better and peaceful future into the region that once saw a spillover of violence along ethnic lines.

 “I think the EU is a crucial model. It offers such a good overview of the future that otherwise would be questionable,” said Ivan Barbalic, president of the Alumni Association of the Center for Interdisciplinary Postgraduate Studies in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.  

 Western Balkans is a term used since 1999 and refers to the southeastern European countries of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo with a combined population of around 22 million.

 The EU has prioritized promoting peace, stability and freedoms in the Western Balkans in the aftermath of the violent conflicts that marked the region's recent history. In December, the European Council reaffirmed a 2003 commitment that the future of the Western Balkans lies in the EU and said this year would be an important one in consolidating the transition process. But EU support is not unconditional and the membership prospects of Western Balkan states will be considered only if they catch up with the bloc's standards in every policy area.

 While the reforms are helping Western Balkans inch closer toward the EU, full membership is expected to bring a welcome respite by mainly addressing security and stability concerns in the region, which only a decade ago was shaken by successive conflicts and is still witnessing troubles today that resurged with the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo.

 “EU integration is actually the only way to achieve security and stability in southeastern Europe,” said Visnja Samardzija, head of European Integration Department at the Croatian Institute for International Relations. Kosovo in particular is the key element for long-term stability in the region, she added.

 Defying the anger of Serbia and the warnings of Russia, Kosovo declared independence on Feb. 17, becoming the continent's youngest nation. Several EU countries have recognized Kosovo's independence.  “It becomes a challenge now for southeastern Europe and for the EU to work on this model for peace,” said Samardzija.

 

'EU will diminish ethnic tension'

 The Balkan states have a mixed demographic composition of various ethnic groups and the EU may be the driving force for unity among those groups and enable them to look up at the same sky.

 “None of the Balkan states are actually ethnically homogeneous and in all of them there are ethnic minorities living in neighboring states, so the ethnic tensions that are currently troubling the region will diminish once they join the EU,” said Marija Risteska of the Center for Research and Policy Making in Skopje, Macedonia.

 Barbalic said EU membership would provide a “common region and a common future” for all the ethnic groups in the region and stressed, “only separate states would not do that.”  

 Among the seven Western Balkan states, only Croatia has been well on its way to the EU as an official candidate since 2004. It started negotiations a year later and is expected to finally join in 2011.

 “It's evident that we have some more time for negotiations. Croatia should speed up reforms especially in judicial, public administration and corruption areas,” said Samardzija. “We have to exert energy to move ahead with the negotiations as fast as possible. The quality of the negotiations is also important. Croatia wants to be a reliable partner.”

 

Croatia faces opposition from neighboring countries

 Despite the smooth progress made by the Croatian government during the negotiations, the zone to protect fishing stocks which was enforced by Zagreb is strongly opposed by the EU, especially by Croatia's Adriatic Sea neighbors Italy and Slovenia. Brussels has warned that Croatian ambitions to join the EU by the end of the decade could be jeopardized over the row, as well as by delays in justice and public administration reform.

 “We are facing a row over the fisheries and ecological protection zone, a challenging issue in the Adriatic Sea. We have our own perspectives. EU members Italy and Slovenia have their own perceptions. The EU could help settle this dispute through negotiations with neighbors,” said Samardzija.

 Albania, which overthrew communist rule in 1992, took the first major step toward full membership when it signed the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU in 2003. The country is now facing the task of implementing a series of political, economic, legal and judicial reforms for alignment with EU standards. Corruption, organized crime and trafficking remain the key problems to address.

 Bosnia and Herzegovina has made strides toward meeting EU criteria since 2005 but further progress is needed in areas including police restructuring and full cooperation with the war crimes tribunal in The Hague.

 

83 percent of Bosnians back EU bid

 “Bosnia and Herzegovina wants to become a full member of the EU. This is the primary and strategic objective of the country,” said Osman Topcagic, head of the Directorate for European Integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina. He said the public supported the EU process as well, as reflected in successive opinion polls from June 2004, 2006 and 2007 that showed most Bosnians have a positive opinion about EU membership. 83 percent of the public backs membership according to a November 2007 poll.

 “With the experiences from our recent past, people in Bosnia and Herzegovina look at the EU and support the integration process as the guarantee for peace, stability and economic prosperity.”

 Although economic reasons appear to outweigh other gains of EU membership, security is considered the major issue for the Balkans.

 “This is rather tricky. When you carry out opinion polls the public always cites unemployment as the primary concern but when they go to vote, the results always shows that security is the key issue and I think it is what the people actually care about,” said Barbalic.

 Serbia's EU process came to a halt in May 2006 when the European Commission broke off talks on membership after Belgrade's failure to deliver the Bosnian Serb leader Ratklo Mladic to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague.  Serbia adopted an action plan in July 2006 to make progress on the issue but the talks froze again in February, this time due to uncontrolled anti-West rioting in Belgrade where the U.S., British, Croatian and Turkish embassies were attacked in protest of these countries' recognition of independent Kosovo.

 Montenegro voted in favor of independence from Serbia in 2006. The EU is developing further relations with this independent state whose separation from Serbia is expected to give a boost to its membership prospects at the helm of pro-European Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic. In Kosovo, the deadlocked negotiations over the final status delayed the reforms but in the upcoming period after independence, Kosovo is mostly likely to forge closer relations with Brussels.

 EU leaders named Macedonia an official candidate in 2005 but have set no date so far for the start of negotiations. “In Macedonia, there is a consensus among the ethnic communities with the overwhelming majority supporting the country's integration with the EU,” said Risteska.

 

And Turkey

 Turkey's membership in the EU – not envisaged before 2015 – is part of the enlargement strategy but Ankara's talks that formally started in 2005 have slowed down due to a number of problems including the decades-old Cyprus standoff and firm opposition of some member states.

 Balkans states' integration with Europe is very likely to happen before Turkey, according to analysts.

 “I think the Western Balkans is really a problem of security inside EU territory, while the case of Turkey is all political and this is something very important in the Turkish-EU axis,” said Barbalic.

 For the Balkans, it is very much up to them to press ahead with reforms in order to meet the criteria for full membership, he added. “EU accession really depends on the opinion of the Balkan peoples even though in the coming years a referendum in one or two EU member countries can prevent their entry but for us it is crucial to continue the reforms; we haven't come to the point of frustration that the Turkish society has come due to the rejection of some member states.”

 Future membership of Turkey in the EU is a challenge for both, according to Topcagic.

 “Bosnia and Herzegovina is not an EU member state and we are not involved in the decision-making about Turkey's progress toward the EU but I personally believe that an EU with Turkey will be much stronger and safer in a globalized world,” he said.  Topcagic stressed that the EU was considering each candidate or potential candidate country by its own merits.

 “There is common conditionality but specific conditions are defined for each country depending on its situation. Good relations and cooperation are an essential element of the integration process and I believe that we need to share our experiences in order to achieve our common goal.”  Turkey enjoys close ties with the Balkan states given the long historical connection and the traditional partnership between the two is expected to continue under the EU umbrella in the future.

 “I think once the Balkans become full-fledged members of the EU, Turkish entry into the bloc will be much easier as the number of the member states in favor of Turkey's bid will rise but if the opposite happens and Turkey joins the EU earlier, then the Balkans will expect strong support from Ankara,” said Risteska.